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Predicting Cancellation Risk
Project Cancellation is cost to developers. We used a logistic model to evaluate which factors influence the likelihood of project cancellation for 868 projects within the Wind Belt region.
Variables included outlined in the conceptual model below:
Results
Low Risk Siting Benefits Developers:
50%
Less likely to be cancelled when located in a low-risk area.
25%
Less likely to be cancelled with every 0.1 increase in positive publicity.
An average wind farm in the Wind Belt is ...
Siting and Publicity Influence Cancellation:
According to our findings, Project location (low-risk/high-risk) and publicity significantly predicts cancellation risk.
For an otherwise average project in our sample:
The matrix describes an average project's likelihood of cancellation given publicity score and location characteristics.
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